An Improved Artificial Intelligence Based on Gray Wolf Optimization and Cultural Algorithm to Predict Demand for Dairy Products: A Case Study

This paper provides an integrated framework based on statistical tests, time series neural network and improved multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP) with novel meta-heuristic algorithms in order to obtain best prediction of dairy product demand (DPD) in Iran. At first, a series of economic and social indicators that seemed to be effective in the demand for dairy products is identified. Then, the ineffective indices are eliminated by using Pearson correlation coefficient, and statistically significant variables are determined. Then, MLP is improved with the help of novel meta-heuristic algorithms such as gray wolf optimization and cultural algorithm. The designed hybrid method is used to predict the DPD in Iran by using data from 2013 to 2017. The results show that the MLP offers 71.9% of the coefficient of determination, which is better compared to the other two methods if no improvement is achieved

Instrumented undriven steering wheel to illustrate dynamic behavior of vehicles

In this paper, a low-cost dynamometer for undriven, steered wheels is described.  The dynamometer was produced to determine whether such an instrumented mechanism is practical.  Four S-beam load cells and two opto-counters were used to obtain all moments, forces, and points of their application.  Overturning, aligning, and rolling resistance moments besides vertical force are directly measured by the load cells.  The opto-counters detect wheel angular velocity and steering angle.  The dynamometer evaluation results showed significant correlation between expected values and measured data with high accuracy.  Wheel dynamic behavior can be defined according to dynamic and kinematic analysis in which relative calculations have minimum simplifying assumptions.   Keywords: dynamometer, wheel forces and moments, point of force application, load cell, opto-counte

A comprehensive model of demand prediction based on hybrid artificial intelligence and metaheuristic algorithms: A case study in dairy industry

This paper presents a multi-stage model for accurate prediction of demand for dairy products (DDP) by the use of artificial intelligence tools including Multi- Layer Perceptron (MLP), Adaptive-Neural-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The innovation of this work is the improvement of artificial intelligence tools with various meta-heuristic algorithms including Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Invasive Weed Optimization (IWO), and Cultural Algorithm (CA). First, the best combination of factors with can affect the DDP is determined by solving a feature selection optimization problem. Then, the artificial intelligent tools are improved with the goal of making a prediction with minimal error. The results indicate that demographic behavior and inflation rate have the greatest impact on dairy consumption in Iran. Moreover, PSO still exhibits a better performance in feature selection in compare of newcomer meta-heuristic algorithms such as IWO and CA. However, IWO shows the best performance in improving the prediction tools by achieving an error of 0.008 and a coefficient of determination of 95%. The final analysis demonstrates the validity and reliability of the results of the proposed model, as it supports the simultaneous analysis and comparison of the outputs of different tools and methods

Phycocyanin C a Natural Product with Impressive Therapeutic Efficacy for Inhibition of Breast Tumors’ Growth and Metastasis in Vivo

Background: Several studies have reported the anticancer effect of phycocyanin C, a natural extract isolated from the algae Arthrospira platensis. However, its therapeutic effects on the growth of breast cancer and its metastasis have not been determined yet. Method: In this case-control study, we employed phycocyanin C for the treatment of 4T1 breast tumor as an applicable experimental animal model for human mammary cancer and metastasis. BALB/c mice were injected subcutaneously (s.c) into the 4th abdominal mammary fat pad with 1×106 4T1 cells. We randomly divided the mice into two groups; one group of mice were injected with PBS as the control, and the other group was intraperitoneally injected with phycocyanin C (80 mg/kg daily for 20 days). Tumor growth and metastasis were assessed in both groups. Results: Phycocyanin C significantly inhibited 4T1 breast tumors growth (P<0.05). The mean tumors volumes at the control group were 2.73 times higher than those of the treatment group. In addition, phycocyanin C treatment could significantly inhibit the formation of metastasis colonies at vital organs like spleen, liver, and lung. Moreover, the survival rate of the tumor-bearing mice increased after about 22 days by phycocyanin C treatment in comparison with the control. Conclusion: This is the first report demonstrating the anticancer effects of phycocyanin C on 4T1 breast tumor in vivo. Overall, our findings provided convincing evidence for the application of phycocyanin C as an anticancer therapeutic agent

Oral and dental health in hospitalized psychiatric patients: a cross-sectional and comparative study in Kerman, Iran

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to assess oral and dental health of hospitalized psychiatric patients.Methods: This cross-sectional study which included 193 psychiatric patients was conducted in two psychiatric hospitals (Shahid Beheshti and Bahman) in Kerman, Iran. According to the duration of the hospital stay, patients were categorized into two groups of acute and chronic. The oral and dental health of the patients was assessed using Decay, Missing, Filling Teeth (DMF-T) index and Oral Assessment Guide for Psychiatric Care (OAG-PC). High score for these two scales indicated a worse oral and dental health.Results: Mean (±SD) DMFT and OAG-PC scores of the patients were 19.74 (±7.88) and 20.77, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that patients in chronic group had higher OAG-PC (P = 0.014), but the difference of DMF-T scores was not statistically significant between the two groups (P = 0.57). After controlling confounding variables, the differences of the DMF-T and OAG-PC scores were not statistically significant between the two groups (P values of 0.88 and 0.64, respectively).Conclusion: Oral and dental health in the studied psychiatric patients was poor. It is vital to improve the oral and dental health status of psychiatric patients

Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. Findings: In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95$20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4–5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6–4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7–2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24–65) to$413 (263–668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90–200) to$1699 (711–3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3–38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4–98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. Interpretation: We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation